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The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable

By: Publication details: Penguin, 2010 London, Description: xxxiii, 444 pages ; 20 cmISBN:
  • 9780141034591
Subject(s):
Contents:
Prologue 1. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic 2. Yevgenia's black swan 3. The speculator and the prostitute 4. One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker 5. Confirmation shmonfirmation! 6. The narrative fallacy 7. Living in the antechamber of hope 8. Giacoma Casanova's unfailing luck: the problem of silent evidence 9. The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd 10. The scandal of prediction 11. How to look for bird poop 12. Epistemocracy, a dream 13. Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? 14. From mediocristan to extremistan, and back 15. The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud 16. The aesthetics of randomness 17. Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places 18. The uncertainty of the phony 19. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan
Summary: What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're nearly impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty."--Cover
List(s) this item appears in: New Arrival - 20 Sept. 2022
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Books Books Anant National University Central Library 003.54 TAL (Browse shelf(Opens below)) Available 004892

Prologue
1. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic
2. Yevgenia's black swan
3. The speculator and the prostitute
4. One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker
5. Confirmation shmonfirmation!
6. The narrative fallacy
7. Living in the antechamber of hope
8. Giacoma Casanova's unfailing luck: the problem of silent evidence
9. The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd
10. The scandal of prediction
11. How to look for bird poop
12. Epistemocracy, a dream
13. Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict?
14. From mediocristan to extremistan, and back
15. The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud
16. The aesthetics of randomness
17. Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places
18. The uncertainty of the phony
19. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're nearly impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty."--Cover

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